Related publications: Weapons of mass destruction

The main multilateral treaty for regulating inhumane weapons—such as incendiary weapons, explosive weapons in populated areas (EWIPA), cluster munitions, land-mines, improvised explosive devices and explosive remnants of war—is the 1981 Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW) Convention, alongside the 1997 Anti-Personnel Mine Convention and the 2008 Convention on Cluster Munitions. While progress in implementing the latter two treaties continued in 2021, a handful of states once again obstructed advances in most of the agenda at the Sixth Review Conference of the CCW Convention.

After many years of slow progress to address the humanitarian harm of EWIPA within the CCW framework, a separate process led by Ireland is aiming to develop a political declaration on their use. After delays related to Covid-19, the consultation process restarted in 2021 and a political declaration is expected to be adopted in 2022.

Autonomous weapon systems

Efforts to regulate autonomous weapon systems (AWS) have been led since 2017 by a group of governmental experts (GGE). The GGE’s discussions in 2021 followed two tracks: on legal, ethical and military aspects of the development and use of AWS; and on AWS governance options. However, fundamental disagreements prevented the GGE from submitting substantive recommendations to the CCW review conference on these two tracks, as well as on a future GGE man-date. The review conference eventually adopted a less ambitious mandate for the GGE, allowing the discussions on AWS to continue within the CCW framework in 2022. But the lack of substantive progress may lead some states to seek alternative paths to achieving a legally binding instrument.

Governance of cyberspace

International efforts to control the malicious use of information and communications technology continued to be hindered by differing state preferences and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Nonetheless, 2021 was generally a productive year for cyber governance. The main state-driven efforts continued in 2021 within two parallel United Nations processes: a GGE and an open-ended working group (OEWG).

Developments in space security

Developments in space security in 2021 centred on three issues: continued development of offensive counterspace capabilities (with new reported tests by China and Russia); increased interest in lunar activities, including the development of two distinct international partnerships (one led by the United States and the other by China and Russia); and widespread support for new discussions on responsible behaviour in space in the UN General Assembly, including agreement to convene a consensus-based OEWG to move discussions forward. 

Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons enters into force

Although, on balance, 2020 was a difficult year for nuclear arms control and non-proliferation efforts, it witnessed a crucial milestone in the development of inter­national norms on nuclear disarmament: on 24 October 2020 Honduras became the 50th state to ratify or accede to the 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), triggering its entry into force 90 days later. The TPNW is the first treaty to establish a comprehensive ban on nuclear weapons, including their develop­ment, deployment, possession, use and threat of use. This prohibition, how­ever, has brought to the fore the tension between nuclear disarmament and nuclear deter­rence: while civil society and many non-nuclear weapon states welcomed the entry into force of the treaty, the nuclear weapon states (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States) and their allies viewed it as undermining the existing nuclear order based on the 1968 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT).

The Covid-19 pandemic led to the post­ponement of the 10th review conference of the NPT. It would have marked the 50th anniversary of the NPT’s entry into force, in 1970, and a quarter of a century since the treaty was indefinitely extended, in 1995. Many welcomed the postponement as the conference appeared set to fail in the political context that prevailed in 2020—a context shaped mainly by the long-standing failure to make progress on nuclear disarmament.

Russian–US nuclear arms control

In keeping with over a decade of diplomatic deadlock in bilateral nuclear arms control between Russia and the USA, little progress was made in their negotiations in 2020. In addition to the deterioration in general Russian–Western political and security relations, contemporary developments in military technology have also complicated strategic dynamics and contributed to this deadlock. Despite their efforts to address relevant issues in the Strategic Security Dialogue framework, by the end of 2020 Russia and the USA had still not agreed to extend their last-remaining bilateral nuclear arms control treaty, the 2010 Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START), which was due to expire on 5 February 2021. The fate of New START remained in the balance due to the different approaches and goals of the two sides: Russia focused on preserving the treaty, while the USA sought to convince China—with no success—to join the agreement and to make it more compre­hensive in terms of the weapons covered and the verification measures imposed. 

Iran and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action

The future of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) also remained uncertain in 2020. The JCPOA is an agree­ment between Iran and six other participating states, as well as the European Union, designed to build international confidence about the exclusively peaceful nature of the Iranian nuclear programme in return for the lifting of sanctions. Iran remained a participant in the JCPOA in 2020, although it was no longer observing key provisions of the agreement. Iran had begun to exceed JCPOA limits on its nuclear activities in 2019 in response to the US ‘maximum pressure’ policy—which, following the US withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018, included ever-harsher sanctions on Iran. Iran continued to maintain that it would return to full compliance as soon as the other parti­ci­pants did the same. The prospects for reviving this ailing nuclear agreement in 2021 were improved by the election of a new US president in late 2020. However, the window for Iran and the USA to agree on the terms for returning to their respec­tive JCPOA commitments remained narrow.

North Korea

Since the breakdown of the short-lived nuclear diplomacy between the USA and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK, or North Korea) in 2018–19 a stale­mate has ensued, and this continued throug­hout 2020. In January North Korea announced that it would no longer observe its unilateral moratoriums on nuclear test explosions and test flights of long-range ballistic missiles that it had declared in 2018. While it conducted no such tests during the year, it continued development of its shorter-range ballistic missiles. 

Controversies related to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty 

The difficult political context for nuclear arms control was also apparent in relation to the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT)—the international treaty that would ban all nuclear test explosions in all environments when it enters into force. In 2020 US officials reportedly discussed the option of conducting a so-called demonstration nuclear explosion, which would have been the first US nuclear explosive test since 1992. By the end of the year, given the adverse political reactions, the political changes in the USA after the elections in November, and various technical diffi­culties, such a test seemed unlikely. Mean­while, as in previous years, the USA questioned whether China and Russia were adhering to their unilateral testing morator­iums. Both denied the US assertions, which have not been sub­stantiated by publicly available evidence. 

Conventional arms control by states usually falls within one of two broad approaches: limiting or prohibiting weapons considered to be inhumane or indiscriminate; or regu­lating and managing the procurement, production, transfer and trade of weapons, with a view to preventing their destabiliz­ing accumulation, diversion or misuse. The first category includes the 1981 Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW) Convention, the 1997 Anti-Personnel Mine (APM) Convention and the 2008 Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM). The second category includes the 2013 Arms Trade Treaty. 

Some types of weapon may not be covered by a specific treaty. In such a case, states may consider a new treaty or—as with lethal autonomous weapon systems (LAWS)—extension of the coverage of an existing regime. In cases where this approach has failed, states may consider alternative, less formal approaches—as in the case of explosive weapons in populated areas (EWIPA). In more complex cases, such as the regulation of cyberspace or activity in space, the most appropriate approach may be the subject of intense debate.

As a complement to controlling arms, international security can be improved by states acting to build mutual confidence. This can be through relatively simple multilateral mechanisms for sharing information on arms procurement or military expenditure. However, the exist­ing instruments are in urgent need of revitalization as participation is low and the data provided is limited in utility.

Anti-personnel mines and cluster munitions

While new uses of APMs by states are now extremely rare, use by non-state armed groups in conflicts, and especially of victim-activated improvised explosive devices (IEDs), is a growing problem. APMs were used by such groups in at least six states between mid 2019 and October 2020: Afghanistan, Colombia, India, Libya, Myanmar and Pakistan. Since the APM Convention entered into force, 31 states parties have completed clearance of all APMs from their territory, with Chile and the United Kingdom doing so in 2020. 

The most recent use of cluster munitions occurred in October 2020 during the armed conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan (both non-parties to the CCM). There was also continued use of cluster munitions in Syria in 2019–20.

Explosive weapons in populated areas

International concern is growing over the use of EWIPA. Little progress has been made on this issue within the framework of the CCW Convention in recent years due to the lack of consensus and a handful of states obstructing advances in the con­vention’s agenda in this area. In 2020 the difficulties in these negotiations were aggravated by the inability to meet face-to-face because of the Covid-19 pandemic—which had an impact in all the conventional arms control discussions during the year. The lack of progress on EWIPA within the CCW regime has led some states to explore a separate process. Led by Ireland, this process aims to develop a political declar­ation to address the humanitarian harm arising from the use of EWIPA. Discussion was slowed by the Covid-19 pandemic, but further consultations are expected to result in the adoption of a declaration in 2021.

Lethal autonomous weapon systems

Efforts to regulate LAWS within the framework of the CCW Convention started in 2014, and have since 2017 been led by an open-ended group of governmental experts (GGE). In 2020 these discussions largely centred on identifying key areas of convergence in order to inform the sixth review conference of the CCW Convention, scheduled to take place in 2021. However, as well as being affected by pandemic-related restrictions, discussions were hampered by persistent fundamental disagreements over the outcome and mandate of the GGE, notably between Western delegations, the Non-Aligned Movement and Russia. This raised serious questions as to what the GGE will be capable of achieving beyond the 11 guiding principles adopted in 2019. 

Governance of cyberspace

In the context of ongoing geopolitical tensions around the security of information and communications technology (ICT), dialogue on the governance of ICT and cyber norms has taken place at multiple levels. The main state-driven efforts continued in 2020 within two parallel United Nations processes: an Open-ended Working Group and a GGE. However, despite changes to the digital landscape caused by the Covid-19 pandemic that have increased the need for action, the differing interests of states and normative preferences have hindered these international efforts to control the malicious use of ICT. In the absence of consensus, a legally binding agreement seems unlikely in the near future. 

Developments in space security

Despite the growing risk of a conflict in outer space, international discussions on both security and safety aspects of space activities remain blocked. Destabilizing issues that arose in 2020 included contro­versial rendezvous and proximity oper­ations and alleged anti-satellite tests by Russia, as well as the adoption of unilateral space policies by the United States. How­ever, in December 2020 the UN General Assembly adopted a promising new initi­ative proposed by the UK on norms for responsible behaviour in space. It is hoped that this will lead to a return to multilateral regulatory approaches for space security. 

Russian–US nuclear arms control

The prospects for sustaining the achievements made in Russian–US nuclear arms control appear to be increasingly remote. During 2019, the long-running dispute between the United States and Russia over a seminal cold war-era arms control treaty, the 1987 Soviet–US Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles (INF Treaty), culminated with the collapse of the treaty. The USA alleged that Russia had developed and deployed a mobile ground-launched cruise missile that had a flight range prohibited under the treaty—an allegation that Russia consistently dismissed as baseless. In August 2019 the USA confirmed its withdrawal from the INF Treaty in the light of Russia’s failure to address US compliance concerns. The decision marked the effective demise of the treaty, which could result in the deployment of new nuclear weapons in Europe.

Russia and the USA also failed to make progress towards extending the sole remaining nuclear arms control agreement between them—the 2010 Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START). The two countries achieved the final New START force reduction limits by the specified deadline in 2018. However, the treaty will lapse if there is no agreement between them to extend it by February 2021. The impasse over New START came against the background of tensions between Russia and the USA over missile defences and advanced weapon delivery systems as well as significant improvements in Chinese strategic capabilities.

North Korean–US nuclear dialogue

In 2019 tensions persisted between the USA and North Korea over the latter’s ongoing programmes to develop nuclear weapons and ballistic missile delivery systems. The two countries remained locked in a diplomatic stalemate over the commitments made by their respective leaders during a summit meeting the previous year to work towards establishing peaceful relations and achieving the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. A second summit meeting between the leaders held in February 2019 ended with no concrete results. In addition, while North Korea continued to adhere to its self-declared moratorium on the testing of nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missiles, during the year it conducted multiple flight tests of shorter-range ballistic missiles, including several new types of system. 

Iran and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action

In 2019 there continued to be controversy over the implementation of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), an eight-party agreement designed to limit Iran’s proliferation-sensitive nuclear activities and to build international confidence about the exclusively peaceful nature of its nuclear programme. During the year, Iran announced that it would incrementally scale back its compliance with the limits set out by the agreement in response to the re-imposition of US sanctions (following the US withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018). Iran appealed to the other JCPOA participants to provide guarantees that at least some degree of sanctions relief—one of Iran’s principal benefits under the JCPOA—could be provided despite the extraterritorial impact of the US sanctions. Against the background of growing political tensions, the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed that Iran continued to facilitate inspection and monitoring activities by the agency pursuant to the JCPOA. 

Multilateral arms control and disarmament

In the framework of the 1968 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT), the third and final session of the Preparatory Committee for the 2020 NPT Review Conference was convened in New York in April and May 2019. Given persistent divisions among NPT members on several issues, the Preparatory Committee was unable to agree on joint recommendations for the 2020 NPT Review Conference. 

There were also continued multilateral diplomatic efforts to promote the entry into force of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), which is the first treaty establishing a comprehensive ban on nuclear weapons, including their development, deployment, possession, use and threat of use. In December the United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution calling on all states that had not yet done so to ‘sign, ratify, accept, approve or accede to the Treaty at the earliest possible date’.

In September 2019 the 11th biannual Conference on Facilitating the Entry into Force of the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) was convened in New York. The conference took place against the backdrop of US allegations that Russia was violating its commitments under the CTBT. In November a Conference on the Establishment of a Middle East Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons and Other Weapons of Mass Destruction held its first session at the UN in New York. Calls to establish a nuclear weapon-free zone in the Middle East date back to 1974. 

North Korean–US nuclear dialogue

In 2018 there was renewed diplomatic engagement between the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK, North Korea) and the United States over the latter’s long-standing demand—supported by multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions—that North Korea verifiably abandon its nuclear weapon and ballistic missile programmes. At the first-ever summit meeting between the North Korean and US leaders in Singapore in June, North Korea committed to work towards the ‘complete denuclearization’ of the Korean Peninsula. As part of the easing of political and military tensions during the year, North Korea announced that it had suspended the testing of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles and had destroyed its nuclear weapon test site. 

Russian–US nuclear arms control

In 2018 Russia and the United States completed the implementation of the 2010 Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START). In February, the two countries announced that they had achieved the final New START force reduction limits by the specified deadline. However, the prospects for sustaining this progress appeared increasingly remote, given the political and military differences between the two countries. New START will expire in 2021 unless both parties agree to extend it, but there were no discussions in 2018 about doing so.

The INF Treaty

The future of nuclear arms control was also called into question in 2018 by the intensified dispute between the USA and Russia over a seminal cold war-era arms control treaty, the 1987 Soviet–US Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles (INF Treaty). The USA alleges that Russia has developed and deployed a mobile ground-launched cruise missile with a flight range prohibited under the treaty—an allegation that Russia has consistently dismissed as baseless. In October, US President Donald J. Trump announced that the USA would formally withdraw from the INF Treaty if Russia did not promptly address US compliance concerns. The year ended with growing pessimism that either party would take steps to preserve the treaty.

Iran and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action

In 2018 Iran continued to implement the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), an eight-party agreement designed to limit Iran’s proliferation-sensitive nuclear activities and to build inter-national confidence about the exclusively peaceful nature of its nuclear programme. Political tensions between Iran and the USA culminated in President Trump announcing in May that the USA would cease participation in the JCPOA and take steps to reimpose US sanctions against Iran that had been lifted or waived in connection with implementing the agreement. The Iranian Government appealed to the other signatories, especially the European Union, to provide guarantees that at least some degree of sanctions relief—one of Iran’s principal benefits under the JCPOA—could be provided despite the extra-territorial impact of the US sanctions in order for Iran to stay in the deal.

Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons

The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), which was negotiated and opened for signature in 2017, remained a focus of international efforts to promote progress towards achieving the long-term goal of global nuclear disarmament. The TPNW is the first legally binding agreement to prohibit the development, deployment, possession, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons. During the year, there were debates in a number of states about whether to accede to the TPNW. The debates tended to focus on assessments of the normative impact of the proposed nuclear-weapon ban as well as its implications for nuclear deterrence-based security strategies and alliances. The treaty will enter into force once it has been signed and ratified by 50 states.

Multilateral arms control and disarmament

In other nuclear arms control-related developments during the year: the second session of the Preparatory Committee for the 2020 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference was held in April–May; and a new UN disarmament agenda, ‘Securing Our Common Future’, was launched by the UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, in May. In June, the high-level fissile material cut-off treaty (FMCT) expert preparatory group completed its work with the adoption of a final report that made recommendations on the scope and substantive elements for the future negotiation of an FMCT. In December, the UN General Assembly First Committee adopted a resolution calling for the UN Secretary-General to convene a conference in 2019 on creating a weapons of mass destruction-free zone in the Middle East. 

There was important new momentum behind global efforts to promote nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation in 2017.

Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons 

The year was marked by the negotiation and opening for signature of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). The treaty is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons, with the ultimate goal of their total elimination. The opening of negotiations on the treaty had been mandated by a United Nations General Assembly resolution at the end of 2016, which had in turn been motivated by the growing international awareness of the devastating humanitarian consequences of any use of nuclear weapons. These steps reflected the frustration of many non-nuclear weapon states that the nuclear weapon states were not taking seriously their obligation under the 1968 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT) to pursue nuclear disarmament. While proponents of the TPNW acknowledged that it would have no immediate impact on existing nuclear arsenals, they highlighted its long-term normative impact—it would serve to delegitimize and stigmatize nuclear weapons and thereby contribute to achieving the ultimate goal of nuclear disarmament. At the same time, there was a recognition during 2017 that the relationship between the TPNW, the NPT and related agreements would have to be defined over time in order to prevent the fragmentation of nuclear disarmament efforts.

Russian–US nuclear arms control

Russia and the United States continued to implement the 2010 Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START), which places numerical limits on their strategic nuclear forces. However, the prospects for sustaining the progress made in Russian–US nuclear arms control since the end of the cold war appeared to be increasingly in doubt. Neither Russia nor the USA indicated that it would agree to extend New START before its scheduled expiration in 2021. They also showed little interest in negotiating deeper reductions in their nuclear arsenals beyond those mandated by New START. At the same time, the USA continued to allege that Russia was violating an important cold war-era arms control treaty, the 1987 Soviet–US Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles (INF Treaty), by deploying a new ground-launched cruise missile proscribed by the treaty. These developments come against a background of further deterioration in political relations between Russia and the USA, underscoring fundamental differences in their respective goals and priorities for arms control.

Multilateral arms control

There were also developments during 2017 related to other multilateral treaties and initiatives on nuclear disarmament, arms control and non-proliferation. In February, the Conference on Disarmament (CD), the world’s sole multilateral forum for negotiating arms control and disarmament agreements, renewed efforts to break the deadlock that has left it unable to adopt a programme of work since 2009. It established a working group to take stock of the progress on all CD agenda items and to identify common ground for a programme of work with a negotiating mandate. In May, the first session of the Preparatory Committee for the 2020 NPT Review Conference was convened in Vienna, Austria. There were also events connected with two unresolved items on the multilateral disarmament and non-proliferation agenda: a fissile material cut-off treaty (FMCT), and the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). In July and August, a high-level expert preparatory group met in Geneva, Switzerland, to consider ways to commence negotiations on an FMCT. In September, the 10th Conference on Facilitating the Entry into Force of the CTBT was held in New York, USA.

Sanctions on North Korea

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s (DPRK, or North Korea) programme to develop nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction, in contravention of UN Security Council resolutions, remained a source of grave international concern. During 2017 the Security Council adopted three additional resolutions imposing new or expanded sanctions on North Korea in response to its nuclear weapon and ballistic missile testing activities.