The Nexus of Non-traditional Security and Nuclear Risk: Implications for EU Foreign Policy in the Indo–Pacific

The updated European Union (EU) Indo–Pacific Strategy highlights the growing strategic importance of the region for the EU’s foreign policy goals, incorporating both traditional security matters and non-traditional security (NTS) concerns. However, the strategy falls short by siloing policy implementation and not addressing the significant nuclear escalation risks among the region’s nuclear-armed states, which could have severe global consequences, including for Europe.

NTS and nuclear risks intersect in complex ways, with NTS as a driver of conflict remaining underexplored despite increasing evidence of causal linkages. In the particular context of the Indo–Pacific, such domestic and interstate conflict holds the potential to escalate to a nuclear dimension due to the intersection of various historical, political and socio-economic factors.

This paper aims to address this gap by proposing that the EU should incorporate NTS-focused risk reduction measures into its Indo–Pacific Strategy, alongside traditional nuclear risk reduction efforts. Additionally, the paper suggests enhancing coordination between EU bodies to develop a more integrated approach to comprehensive security in the region.