Parameters to Assess Escalation Risks in Space

Space-enabled services are critical for various civilian and military purposes. Current military uses of space—for example, in the Russia–Ukraine War—indicate several avenues for unpredictability and ambiguity, which can increase potential for escalation, both in space and on earth. Yet, there is no common understanding of escalation risks in the international community.

This SIPRI Research Policy Paper identifies four parameters to assess escalation risks in the space domain: the target, the capability used, the effect and the consequences. These parameters can help establish a standardized approach to assess whether an attack is escalatory.

Based on current trends that undermine predictability and transparency in space activities, these parameters inform recommendations to minimize escalation risks. These recommendations include proposals to limit attacks on high-value strategically significant space systems; undertake exchanges on critical infrastructure; characterize acts that are especially escalatory; to enhance resilience of space-based services for civilians; and to build a typology that identifies potential harms. The recommendations also demand further action from states to implement and enforce international law governing space activities and to engage with commercial actors to raise awareness and clearly establish their accountability.