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Nuclear Security in Ukraine and the Black Sea Region: New Threats, New Risks, New Consequences
March 2023
Stockholm
SIPRI
Nuclear security threats in the Black Sea region went through momentous changes between the 1990s and 2023. Up to 2014 the region was known as the location for the most high-profile cases of nuclear smuggling. In 2014 Ukraine lost control of parts of its territory and borders, which exacerbated the same nuclear security challenges. Attacks on nuclear installations were still seen as unlikely.
In 2022 the Russian military did attack Ukrainian nuclear facilities. The Ukrainian nuclear security regime began to adapt, shifting focus to protecting nuclear installations in extraordinary circumstances. Black Sea states began to recognize Ukrainian territories affected by armed conflict as a source of nuclear security risks. Large nuclear security events with radiological consequences for the Black Sea region are now seen as viable risks. A companion paper describes how attacks on nuclear installations in Ukraine have changed the international nuclear security framework.
Table of contents
I. Introduction
II. Background on nuclear security in the Black Sea region
III. Nuclear safety and security challenges in Ukraine
IV. Nuclear security in the Black Sea region beyond Ukraine
V. Conclusions
ABOUT THE AUTHOR(S)/EDITORS
Vitaly Fedchenko is a Senior Researcher in the SIPRI Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme.
Dr Wilfred Wan is the Director of the SIPRI Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme.
Dr Iryna Maksymenko Dr Iryna Maksymenko is a Senior Researcher at the Odesa Center for Nonproliferation (OdCNP), and an Associate Professor in the Department of International Relations at Odesa I.I. Mechnikov National University.
Dr Polina Sinovets Dr Polina Sinovets is the Head of the Odesa Center for Nonproliferation (OdCNP) at Odesa I.I. Mechnikov National University (ONU). She also works as an Associate Professor in the Faculty of International Relations, Political Science and Sociology at ONU.