Military Entrenchment in Mali and Niger: Praetorianism in Retrospect

Since 2021, SIPRI has been conducting perception surveys in Mali and Niger within the framework of the Just Future programme, funded by CORDAID. Both countries have experienced coups d’état and the conditions for the work have changed radically, particularly in terms of access to fieldwork and information.

Although the factors driving each coup are unique to the specific socio-historical contexts, in Mali and Niger the military has long been intertwined with politics. Furthermore, the deterioration of the security situation, caused by the establishment of armed jihadist groups in large parts of their territories, has been a key factor in the remilitarization of power. Lacking democratic legitimacy, the ruling military juntas are turning to external partners such as China, Russia and Turkey in an attempt to reshape traditional partnerships’ equilibrium.

Through perception surveys conducted in Mali and Niger, SIPRI and its partners, LASDEL and POINT SUD, aim to understand populations’ perceptions of security and governance. The SIPRI report explores the causes of coups and how these military regimes, despite initial popular support, isolate themselves while deepening authoritarianism, state-sponsored violence against civilian populations and restricting civil liberties.