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Recent trends in international arms transfers in the Middle East and North Africa

Military aircraft
Gulf States practice interoperability during Exercise Eagle Resolve 25. Photo credit: Gerald R. Willis/DVIDS

The Middle East has long been one of the regions importing the largest volumes of major arms. SIPRI’s latest data on international arms transfers shows that the Middle East accounted for more than a quarter (27 per cent) of global arms imports in 2020–24. North Africa accounted for another 2.2 per cent.

The Middle East and North Africa are interconnected geographically, historically and militarily. They are also impacted by and influence regional conflicts and security dynamics. Hence analysts often treat the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) as a single region. This topical backgrounder unpacks recent trends in international arms transfers in MENA.

The backgrounder first looks at overall regional trends. It then focuses on the largest importers, with a particular focus on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. It also sheds light on recent trends in arms imports by three other major regional players—Israel, Iran and Egypt—and the two top importers in North Africa: Algeria and Morocco. Finally, although MENA is a net importer of arms, the backgrounder examines the growing role of a handful of Middle Eastern states as arms exporters.   

Headline trends in arms imports

Although the Middle East’s share of global arms imports has increased by 61 per cent since 2005–09, imports to the Middle East fell by 20 per cent between 2015–19 and 2020–24, for a variety of reasons (see figure 1). However, given the volume of pending deliveries, the Middle East will almost certainly remain a major arms-importing region.

North Africa’s share of global arms imports is much smaller and fell by 62 per cent between 2015–19 and 2020–24 due to falling arms imports by Algeria and Morocco.

Four of the world’s top 10 arms importers in 2020–24 were in MENA (see figure 2): Qatar (no. 3), Saudi Arabia (no. 4), Egypt (no. 8) and Kuwait (no. 10). 

In 2020–24, half (50 per cent) of arms imports by MENA states were supplied by the United States (see figure 3a), followed by Italy (12 per cent), France (9.7 per cent) and Germany (7.6 per cent). Russia’s share of the supply of regional arms imports fell from 18 per cent in 2015–19 to just 4.1 per cent in 2020–24, with volumes of Russian exports to MENA falling by 83 per cent. China accounted for 1.2 per cent of regional arms imports (down from 3.0 per cent in 2015–19).

The largest categories of major arms imported by MENA states in 2020–24 (see figure 3b) were aircraft (43 per cent), ships (20 per cent) and missiles (16 per cent). Combat aircraft accounted for 80 per cent of all aircraft imports, frigates for 70 per cent of all imports of ships, and anti-ballistic missiles (ABMs) for 18 per cent of all imports of missiles. The long-range strike capabilities offered by combat aircraft are in demand in MENA, as they are in other parts of the world. However, concerns about security in the naval domain are also increasing in the region, as is reflected in the acquisition of frigates by Egypt, Israel and Qatar, while the procurement of significant quantities of ABMs reflects the complexity of securing airspace.

Top importers in the Gulf Cooperation Council

The Gulf Cooperation Council includes some of the biggest arms importers in the world. GCC members also share several common threat perceptions and security priorities as well as intertwined, and sometimes tense, security dynamics. GCC states accounted for 20 per cent of global arms imports in 2020–24, with their import volume increasing by 4.1 per cent compared with 2015–19. Three GCC members—Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait—were among the world’s top 10 arms importers in 2020–24. 

Regional tensions are a major driver of arms imports by GCC states. For example, the Saudi-led coalition of several GCC members involved in the conflict in Yemen has used imported arms against the Houthi movement there. 

Although Qatar is the second smallest GCC state, it was for the first time the top arms importer in the Middle East in 2020–24, accounting for 23 per cent of the MENA arms imports. Qatar’s arms imports in 2020–24 were 127 per cent higher than in 2015–19 and 3025 per cent higher than in 2005–09. Qatar’s main supplier in 2020–24 was the USA (accounting for 48 per cent), followed by Italy (20 per cent), the United Kingdom (15 per cent) and France (14 per cent). 

Qatar’s large-scale rearmament has occurred against a backdrop of growing regional insecurity and tensions with its neighbours, which reached their peak with a Saudi-led blockade of the country in 2017–21. Deliveries in 2015–19 included combat aircraft from France ordered in 2015, heavy transport aircraft from the USA ordered in 2015, ABMs, surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems and missiles ordered from the USA in 2014, and tanks from Germany ordered in 2013, among others. In 2020–24 deliveries included combat aircraft from the USA, the UK and France, which were ordered in 2017, and frigates from Italy ordered in 2016, among others.

Arms imports by Saudi Arabia shrank by 41 per cent between 2015–19 and 2020–24, although it still accounted for another 23 per cent of the MENA arms imports. Saudi Arabia went from being the world’s largest arms importer in 2015–19 to fourth largest in 2020–24. Saudi Arabia’s main arms supplier in 2020–24 was the USA (74 per cent), followed by Spain (10 per cent) and France (6.2 per cent). 

The striking drop in Saudi Arabia’s arms imports in 2020–24 can be partly attributed to the cyclical nature of arms procurement: once systems have entered service they will naturally be used for some time before replacements are ordered and eventually delivered. This can create temporary dips in deliveries. 

Also, Saudi Arabia is investing in its own arms industry as part of its Vision 2030. However, this is unlikely to end its reliance on imports in the foreseeable future. Given the volumes of major arms Saudi Arabia has on order, it is likely to remain a major importer. 

The arms imports of two more GCC states rose sharply between 2015–19 and 2020–24: Kuwait (+466 per cent) and Bahrain (+898 per cent), making Kuwait the 10th and Bahrain the 23rd largest global arms importers. In 2020–24, the USA supplied 63 per cent of Kuwait’s arms imports, followed by Italy (29 per cent) and France (7.1 per cent). In 2016, Kuwait’s parliament approved an additional US$10 billion in military spending over 10 years to replace aging combat aircrafts, tanks and air-defence systems. Imports in 2020–24 included US tanks and US and Italian combat aircraft ordered in 2016. However the level of outstanding orders is relatively low.

Bahrain’s security considerations relate to regional tensions, particularly with Iran, as well as internal dissent. The USA remains by far the most important arms supplier to Bahrain, accounting for 97 per cent of imports in 2020–24. The USA has seen its relations with Bahrain as a means of projecting power and stability in the Gulf region, and in 2017 Bahrain and the USA extended their Defense Cooperation Agreement, first signed in 1991, by a further 15 years. In 2023, Bahrain and the USA signed the Comprehensive Security Integration and Prosperity Agreement to enhance cooperation across a wide range of areas, including defence and security. Bahrain’s most significant imports in 2020–24 were combat aircraft ordered in 2017, surface-to-surface missiles ordered in 2019 and combat helicopters ordered in 2018, all from the USA.

The United Arab Emirates, while being the 11th largest arms importer in the world in 2020–24, saw a 19 per cent decrease in arms imports compared to 2015–19. This was probably due to the UAE’s pullback from participation in the war in Yemen, although the UAE reportedly continues to conduct militarized interventions in Yemen in other forms, as well as in Libya, Somalia and Sudan, through a ‘multilayered network of violent non-state actors, financiers, traders, political figureheads and influencers to create bridgeheads in countries of strategic value to Emirati national interests’. The UAE continues to rely on imports of major arms, and pending deliveries include SAM systems from South Korea, combat aircraft from France and combat helicopters from the USA. 

Middle Eastern importers beyond the GCC: Israel, Iran and Egypt

Israel is the sixth largest arms importer in the Middle East, and the 15th largest globally. Between 2015–19 and 2020–24, its imports remained largely stable (–2.3 per cent). The USA was its largest supplier in 2020–24 (66 per cent) followed by Germany (33 per cent). 

Israel continues to rely heavily on military aid from the USA for major conventional capabilities. For Israel’s war in Gaza and its subsequent military actions in Iran, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen, Israel has relied largely on US weapons received as aid before 7 October 2023, especially combat aircraft. Israel continued to receive considerable volumes of military aid from the USA throughout 2024, including missiles, guided bombs and armoured vehicles. Of the 61 combat aircraft pending delivery to Israel from the USA, 50 were ordered in 2024. 

Despite its prominence as a regional power, Iran imports relatively small volumes of major arms, accounting for just 0.2 per cent of arms imports by MENA states in 2020–24. During the 1990s, 12 states supplied major arms to Iran. The mid-2000s saw the imposition of arms embargoes on Iran by the USA and the United Nations. Since then, Iran has relied on fewer and fewer international suppliers—mostly Russia and China—in addition to its own domestic production of arms, especially missiles and uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs). In 2015–19, Russia supplied 98 per cent of Iran’s arms imports, and in 2020–24 it was Iran’s sole supplier. In the last 10 years, Iran’s imports of Russian arms have included air-defence systems, missiles, aircraft and sensors. 

Egypt’s arms imports shrank by 44 per cent between 2015–19 and 2020–24, and it went from being the world’s third largest arms importer in 2015–19 to the eighth largest in 2020–24. In 2015–19, more than half (51 per cent) of Egypt’s arms imports were aircraft—mainly Russian and French combat aircraft and Russian combat helicopters. In 2020–24 almost two thirds (65 per cent) were ships, including major warships from Italy, Germany and France. 

Egypt’s most significant imports in the last decade reflect a deep focus on strengthening long-range strike and naval capabilities. This has occurred in the context of tensions and disputes in the eastern Mediterranean, war in neighbouring Sudan, tense relations with Israel and involvement in the war in Libya (where Egypt has used imported major arms). 

The top arms importers in North Africa: Algeria and Morocco

In North Africa, the largest importers of major arms in 2020–24 were Algeria (53 per cent of imports to North Africa) and Morocco (34 per cent). The two neighbours have long-standing tensions linked to the Western Sahara conflict and other issues and disagreements.

Algeria was the world’s 21st largest arms importer in 2020–24. Its imports shrank by 73 per cent from a peak in 2015–19. The decline in Algeria’s arms imports can be attributed in part to procurement cycles. In 2020–24, Russia accounted for almost half (48 per cent) of Algeria’s arms imports, followed by China (19 per cent) and Germany (14 per cent). Although Russia remains Algeria’s most important arms supplier, imports from Russia to Algeria fell by 81 per cent between 2015–19 and 2020–24. The most significant imports in 2020–24 were armoured vehicles (33 per cent), aircraft (29 per cent) and ships (21 per cent). Of the aircraft, nine Russian combat aircraft, four US transport aircraft and six armed UAVs from China are known to have been delivered

Morocco’s arms imports decreased by 26 per cent between 2015–19 and 2020–24. Morocco’s imports peaked in 2010–14, having increased more than 10 times over compared to 2005–2009. The USA (64 per cent) was Morocco’s largest supplier in 2020–24, followed by France (15 per cent) and Israel (11 per cent). The most significant imports were armoured vehicles (63 per cent), missiles (12 per cent) and aircraft (9.6 per cent). At least 51 per cent of the missiles Morocco is known to have received were SAMs from Israel. Of the 55 aircraft Morocco is known to have received, 24 were armed UAVs (19 of them from Türkiye).

Arms exporters in MENA 

Several Middle Eastern states export major arms both within and beyond MENA (see figures 4a and 4b). In 2020–24, more than half (52 per cent) of MENA exports were from Israel and another 28 per cent from Türkiye. Iran (7.2 per cent of exports from MENA), the UAE (5.3 per cent) and Jordan (5 per cent) were also among the world’s top 25 arms exporters, although Jordan supplied mostly second-hand arms it had previously imported. 

The biggest categories of major arms exported by MENA states were missiles (28 per cent); aircraft (19 per cent) and armoured vehicles (17 per cent). Nearly all were from Middle Eastern states, but some second-hand tanks being modernized in Czechia for the Moroccan army were exported to Ukraine in 2022–23.   

In 2020–24, Israel was the world’s eighth largest arms exporter, accounting for 3.1 per cent of global arms exports. Israel’s exports remained on roughly the same level (–2 per cent) as in 2015–19. The largest single importer of Israeli arms was India (34 per cent), followed by the USA (13 per cent) and the Philippines (8.1 per cent). Half of Israel’s exports went to states in Asia and Oceania, while another 27 per cent went to European states. However, Israel’s exports to two other regions increased markedly between 2015–19 and 2020–24: Africa (+230 per cent) and the Middle East (+187 per cent), in large part due to deliveries to Morocco and the UAE after normalization of relations in 2020–21. 

In 2020–24, Türkiye became the world’s 11th largest arms exporter, accounting for 1.7 per cent of all global exports. Türkiye’s exports increased by 103 per cent between 2015–19 and 2020–24, continuing its rapid rise as an arms exporter: in 2015–19 it entered the top 15 global exporters for the first time thanks to a near-doubling of its exports compared to 2010–14. 

Like Israel, Türkiye exports arms around the world, with 33 per cent going to its Middle Eastern neighbours and another 32 per cent to states in Asia and Oceania in 2020–24. In addition, Türkiye’s exports to Europe grew by 469 per cent and those to Africa by 296 per cent between 2015–19 and 2020–24. The growth in exports to Europe was primarily due to transfers to Ukraine (+1460 per cent). 

Türkiye has made significant efforts to increase its arms exports to Africa, partly to find new markets for the Turkish arms industry and partly to increase its influence in the region. Several African states import Turkish arms (including UAVs and armoured vehicles) for reconnaissance and counterterrorism operations. Factors making Turkish arms relatively attractive to some states in the region may include avoiding geopolitical risks associated with great power competition. 

Nigeria was the largest African importer of arms from Türkiye in 2020–24, mostly in the form of combat helicopters. Morocco also imported Turkish UAVs and armoured vehicles. Türkiye is emerging as a key supplier of arms to West African states, accounting for 11 per cent of their arms imports in 2020–24. 

ABOUT THE AUTHOR(S)

Zain Hussain is a Researcher in the SIPRI Arms Transfers Programme.
Dr Alaa Tartir is a Senior Researcher in the SIPRI Middle East and North Africa Programme.