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Research reports

Navigating Security Dilemmas in Indo-Pacific Waters: Undersea Capabilities and Armament Dynamics

This paper examines the drivers and implications of naval build-ups in the Indo-Pacific, considering key actors’ security objectives and threat perceptions, as well as the interplay of regional dynamics and strategic relations between nuclear-armed states. The focus is on undersea armament involving submarines and anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities, which constitute a significant focus of military investments. The paper considers the related horizontal and vertical escalation risks, meaning a potential increase in the scope and scale of conflict.

New Compact, Renewed Impetus: Enhancing the EU’s Ability to Act Through its Civilian CSDP

In May 2023, European Union (EU) member states adopted a new compact to further strengthen the EU’s civilian Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). The new Civilian CSDP Compact succeeds the compact established in 2018 and is in line with the 2022 Strategic Compass for Security and Defence, in particular its objective to increase the EU’s ability to act whenever crises emerge. 

Cyber Posture Trends in China, Russia, the United States and the European Union

Current understanding of the cyber postures of China, Russia, the United States and the European Union (EU) merits re-evaluation. It is often assumed that China and Russia are aligned, yet this is not always the case. Unlike Russia, which has an ongoing focus on information security, China’s official documents incorporate both information security and cybersecurity concerns that are similar to those of the EU and the USA. Moreover, while often paired, the EU and the USA have differing regulatory structures in cyberspace.

Arms-production Capabilities in the Indo-Pacific Region: Measuring Self-reliance

Armed forces in the Indo-Pacific region remain dependent on weapon systems imported from foreign suppliers. This is despite the efforts of many governments in the Indo-Pacific to implement policies that support the development of local arms industrial capabilities with the aim of increasing self-reliance.

This report develops three indicators to give a score and regional ranking of self-reliance in arms production to 12 jurisdictions in the Indo-Pacific region: Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Viet Nam.

The Human Security Case for Rebalancing Military Expenditure

Global military expenditure has reached record levels. At the same time, hundreds of millions of people face non-traditional ‘vital’ risks and threats to their security—threats to their lives, livelihoods and dignity. Accelerating climate change and growing loss of biodiversity add unprecedented urgency to investing in people’s security. The concept of human security, as explained in this paper, emphasizes the security of people without neglecting the security of states and state order.

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