Subregional Arms Control and Conflict Prevention in the Western Balkans

The Agreement on Sub-Regional Arms Control establishes limitations on the numbers of major conventional arms and provides for arms control verification in, at present, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro and Serbia. Signed in 1996 and based on the Dayton Peace Agreement, it is still duly implemented, even against the backdrop of rising regional tensions and the crisis in arms control in Europe. 

This paper identifies the different factors at work in the continuous implementation of the Agreement, discusses the Agreement’s ability to contribute to regional conflict prevention and addresses its outlook for the near future. As the European Union (EU) is interested in the region both as its close security environment and in terms of enlargement, the EU should consider ways to use its political leverage to promote a conducive political climate for arms control and integrate transparency and confidence-building measures into its approach to conflict prevention.