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The Potentially Revolutionary Impact of Emerging and Disruptive Technologies and Strategic Conventional Weapons on the Nuclear Deterrence Debate
This paper posits that the combination of emerging and disruptive technologies and strategic conventional weapons may have a revolutionary impact on the future of the debate about nuclear weapons. While emerging and disruptive technologies may yield additional arguments to keep relying on nuclear weapons to defend against them, they are often regarded as destabilizing for the global nuclear order, which makes it more likely that nuclear deterrence will fail and nuclear weapons will be used. At the same time, strategic conventional weapon systems (including hypersonic missiles) have deterrence characteristics comparable to nuclear weapons. Because they could be used in a way that at least seeks to comply with jus in bello principles, by minimizing civilian harm (in comparison with nuclear weapons), they are also more credible as a deterrent. This may in turn increase political willingness to seriously consider delegitimizing nuclear weapons, and eventually replacing them with the default option: modern conventional weapons.
Table of contents
I. Introduction
II. The nuclear weapons debate
III. Emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs)
IV. The growing vulnerability of nuclear weapons as a result of EDTs
V. How to mitigate the destabilizing effect of EDTs on nuclear deterrence?
VI. A more credible conventional deterrent than nuclear brinkmanship
VII. Implications for the EU
VIII. Conclusion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR(S)/EDITORS
Tom Sauer is a Professor in International Politics and spokesperson of the International Politics Research Group at the Department of Politics, University of Antwerp (Belgium).