The Expansion of the NewSpace Industry and Missile Technology Proliferation Risks

The rise of innovation and commercialization in the global space sector, referred to as ‘NewSpace’, has resulted in transformative changes within the industry. NewSpace creates challenges for the effective implementation of export controls and may exacerbate missile proliferation risks. 

A SIPRI pilot study has mapped the missile-related NewSpace industry of 84 selected states. These include Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) partners, MTCR adherents and states not participating in the MTCR. Over half of the adherents and non-participating states have established NewSpace companies that are developing, testing, producing or marketing missile-related technology in their domestic industry, and eight of them also have active small- and micro-launcher projects. The spread of missile-related technology through the NewSpace industry is an increasingly important factor for the MTCR and other missile non-proliferation instruments when considering expanding membership and targeting outreach.

This report is part of the final output of the SIPRI research project ‘Quo Vadis MTCR II: Mapping and Mitigating the Potential Impact of the NewSpace Industry on Missile Technology Proliferation’, funded by the German Federal Foreign Office. It presents and analyses a pilot study on the spread of NewSpace companies developing, testing, producing or marketing missile-related technology and develops policy recommendations to the MTCR partners.