- Armament and disarmament
- Conflict, peace and security
- Peace and development
There have been a number of revelations lately about many aspects of the bombing of a Syrian military facility in 2007. The US Intelligence Community concluded, with low confidence, that it was a plutonium producing nuclear reactor under construction. In addition to concerns expressed by others about the sampling process and analysis, we have reviewed many of the physical characteristics of the site.
We find that key intelligence indicators were ignored or misconstrued. In particular imagery indictors of a portion of the bombed facility lead to questions about another nearby facility with many of the same characteristics. This analysis was published in Jane’s several years ago, but as new evidence becomes available it is time to revisit the bombed site and the failure to follow-up on key indicators, particularly satellite imagery.
Read the full expert comment (pdf) by SIPRI's Robert Kelley.