11. The trade in major conventional weapons

Summary

The SIPRI global trend-indicator value of international
transfers of major conventional weapons in 1995 was $22 797 million in constant
(1990) US dollars. The revised estimate for the trend-indicator value for
1994 is $22 842 million - roughly $1 billion more than the estimate provided
in the SIPRI Yearbook 1995. (It is usual for the figures for the most recent
years to be revised as new and better data become available.)

In the period 1991-95 the precipitous decline in the volume
of arms transfers recorded for the period 1987-90 appears to have been arrested
and there is some evidence of a slight upward trend in deliveries.

The data available now permit a first tentative evaluation
of broad patterns in the post-cold war arms trade, and the chapter examines
in greater detail the patterns of arms transfers for selected suppliers
and recipients across the 10-year period 1986-95. At the broadest level,
these data tend to reinforce some accepted propositions about the trade
in major conventional weapons. First, it is concentrated among a small number
of suppliers and a relatively small number of recipients. The identity of
the suppliers conforms closely to the group of major powers as identified
by other indicators such as size of GDP and representation on the UN Security
Council. Second, the pattern of arms transfers is heavily dominated by the
nature of security arrangements between supplier and recipient. Third, bilateral
relationships seem to be durable in the sense that equipment dependencies
remain for a considerable period after a change in political alignment.

The data suggest there is much continuity in these very
broad patterns of supply, but some elements of discontinuity also appear
on closer examination.

The countries previously supplied by the Soviet Union and
its allies have found it difficult to find alternative sources of major
conventional weapons. By contrast, there is evidence that within the group
of states that traditionally relied on the Western allies for major conventional
weapons, the USA has consolidated its dominance at the expense of West European
suppliers.

There is also some support for the suggestion that the
importance of motivations other than security assistance is growing. The
capacity to pay in hard currency is probably given more weight by suppliers
in their decision making compared with such factors as political alignment,
access to bases and other facilities considered to have strategic importance
and that were weighted more heavily during the cold war. Countries such
as Kuwait, Taiwan and the countries of South-East Asia have the capacity
to pay in hard currency for major systems.

Appendix 11A. Tables of the volume of the trade in major conventional weapons, 1986-95

IAN ANTHONY, GERD HAGMEYER-GAVERUS, PIETER D. WEZEMAN AND SIEMON T. WEZEMAN

Appendix 11B. Register of the trade in and licensed production of major conventional weapons, 1995

IAN ANTHONY, GERD HAGMEYER-GAVERUS, PIETER D. WEZEMAN AND SIEMON T. WEZEMAN

Appendices 11A and 11B provide
data on the arms trade in major conventional weapons in 1995.