Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) today launches its annual nuclear forces data, which assesses the current trends and developments in world nuclear arsenals. The data shows that while the overall number of nuclear weapons in the world continues to decline, none of the nuclear weapon-possessing states are prepared to give up their nuclear arsenals for the foreseeable future.
At the start of 2014 nine states—the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea—possessed approximately 4000 operational nuclear weapons. If all nuclear warheads are counted, these states together possessed a total of approximately 16 300 nuclear weapons (see table 1) compared to 17 270 in early 2013.
Reductions slow and modernizations continue
Over the past five years there has been a steady decline in the overall number of nuclear warheads in the world (see table 2). The decrease is due mainly to Russia and the USA—which together still account for more than 93 per cent of all nuclear weapons—further reducing their inventories of strategic nuclear weapons under the terms of the Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START).
At the same time, all five legally recognized nuclear weapon states—China, France, Russia, the UK and the USA—are either deploying new nuclear weapon delivery systems or have announced programmes to do so. India and Pakistan continue to develop new systems capable of delivering nuclear weapons and are expanding their capacities to produce fissile material for military purposes.
There is an emerging consensus in the expert community that North Korea has produced a small number of nuclear weapons, as distinct from rudimentary nuclear explosive devices.
Table 1. World nuclear forces, 2014
|
Country |
Year of first nuclear test |
Deployed warheads* |
Other warheads |
Total 2014 |
|
USA |
1945 |
1920 |
5380 |
7300 |
|
Russia |
1949 |
1600 |
6400 |
8000 |
|
UK |
1952 |
160 |
65 |
225 |
|
France |
1960 |
290 |
10 |
300 |
|
China |
1964 |
|
250 |
250 |
|
India |
1974 |
|
90–110 |
90–110 |
|
Pakistan |
1998 |
|
100–120 |
100–120 |
|
Israel |
. . |
|
80 |
80 |
|
North Korea |
2006 |
|
6–8 |
6–8 |
|
Total |
|
3970 |
12 350 |
16 300 |
Source: SIPRI Yearbook 2014
* ‘Deployed’ means warheads placed on missiles or located on bases with operational forces.
All estimates are approximate and are as of January 2014.
‘Once again this year, the nuclear weapon-possessing states took little action to indicate a genuine willingness to work toward complete dismantlement of their nuclear arsenals. The long term modernization programmes under way in these states suggest their views that nuclear weapons will remain deeply embedded elements of their strategic calculus,’ say SIPRI Researchers Shannon Kile and Phillip Patton Schell.
Table 2. World nuclear forces, 2010–14
|
Country* |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
|
USA |
9600 |
8500 |
8000 |
7700 |
7300 |
|
Russia |
12 000 |
11 000 |
10 000 |
8500 |
8000 |
|
UK |
225 |
225 |
225 |
225 |
225 |
|
France |
300 |
300 |
300 |
300 |
300 |
|
China |
240 |
240 |
240 |
250 |
250 |
|
India |
60–80 |
80–100 |
80–100 |
90–110 |
90–110 |
|
Pakistan |
70–90 |
90–110 |
90–110 |
100–120 |
100–120 |
|
Israel |
80 |
80 |
80 |
80 |
80 |
|
Total |
22 600 |
20 530 |
19 000 |
17 270 |
16 300 |
Sources: SIPRI Yearbooks 2010–2014
* Based on public information about North Korea’s past plutonium production activities, it is estimated here that North Korea has built 6–8 nuclear weapons.
For editors
The SIPRI Yearbook is a compendium of cutting-edge information and analysis on developments in armaments, disarmament and international security. Three major Yearbook data sets were pre-launched earlier in 2014: the SIPRI Top 100 arms-producing companies (31 January), international arms transfers (17 March) and world military expenditure data (14 April). SIPRI Yearbook 2014 is published by Oxford University Press and will be available later in 2014. Learn more at www.sipriyearbook.org.